Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 3560 at 06:59, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3560 Envoy	AVL 06:59	MIA 09:04	16%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 22m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 09m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 18:00 → ATL 19:08DL 3101	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	5h 39m	96%	77%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	6h 44m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	5h 26m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 34m	99%	72%
American Details →	AVL 10:44 → PHL 12:34AA 6031 · flown by Piedmont	2h 14m Philadelphia	PHL 14:48 → MIA 17:50AA 3061	7h 06m	100%	68%
American Details →	AVL 14:44 → CLT 15:58AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	3h 59m Charlotte	CLT 19:57 → MIA 22:04AA 565	7h 20m	96%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	48m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 19m	68%	57%
American Details →	AVL 14:44 → CLT 15:58AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	49m Charlotte	CLT 16:47 → MIA 19:00AA 3011	4h 16m	70%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON