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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960 5h 43m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 57m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 7h 01m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 12:29 → MSP 14:23AA 1671 6h 31m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280 7h 13m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 5h 19m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → AVL 14:44 → CLT 15:58AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 3h 15m Charlotte CLT 19:13 → MSP 21:03AA 2176 7h 19m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:51 → ORD 11:57UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Chicago ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298 6h 22m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON