Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5833 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day OO 5833 AVL 06:51 → ORD 07:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4737 AVL 18:31 → ORD 19:43 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5833 SkyWest	AVL 06:51	ORD 07:59	17%	5%	2.4%	no record
UA 4652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 10:51	ORD 11:57	17%	5%	2.1%	93%worse than usual
AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 11:23	ORD 12:26	21%	5%	2.0%	82%
YX 4737 Republic	AVL 18:31	ORD 19:43	29%	10%	4.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON