Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4579 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4579 SFO 05:36 → MDW 11:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2317 SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4579 Southwest	SFO 05:36	MDW 11:50	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4320 Southwest	OAK 05:51	MDW 12:04	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4377 Southwest	SJC 06:01	MDW 12:18	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2091 United Flight history →	SFO 06:05	ORD 12:41	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
AA 2614 American Flight history →	SFO 06:04	ORD 12:31	6%	2%	1.2%	92%
UA 2343 United	SFO 05:08	ORD 11:35	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2986 Southwest	OAK 00:01	MDW 06:11	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2847 United	SFO 00:29	ORD 06:53	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2740 United	SJC 06:35	ORD 13:02	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 3250 American Flight history →	SFO 06:58	ORD 13:18	11%	3%	1.1%	89%
AA 2814 American	SFO 09:16	ORD 15:43	15%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1568 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	ORD 14:50	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 2817 American	SFO 17:18	ORD 23:39	19%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 1650 United	SJC 14:09	ORD 20:38	20%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1887 United	SFO 16:57	ORD 23:10	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2885 American	SFO 10:35	ORD 17:02	26%	10%	1.1%	no record
UA 1147 United	SFO 15:01	ORD 21:26	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2827 United	SFO 10:12	ORD 16:39	29%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2358 American	SFO 13:35	ORD 20:03	29%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 2642 American	SFO 14:59	ORD 21:20	33%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 1922 United	SFO 14:02	ORD 20:25	33%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	35%	9%	0.6%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	56m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544	6h 08m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	5h 49m	81%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON