Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1389 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1389 OAK 06:01 → DAL 11:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2387 SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1389 Southwest	OAK 06:01	DAL 11:34	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2116 American	SFO 05:31	DFW 11:17	5%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 8838 Delta	SFO 06:17	DAL 11:49	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	6%	2%	1.2%	83%
AA 1019 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	DFW 11:46	7%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 304 American Flight history →	SFO 07:48	DFW 13:35	9%	3%	1.2%	93%
UA 1866 United	SFO 00:09	DFW 05:38	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1062 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	DFW 14:25	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 1188 American	SFO 09:06	DFW 14:53	14%	5%	1.2%	no record
F9 2930 Frontier	SFO 00:03	DFW 05:49	17%	8%	2.6%	no record
WN 2167 Southwest	SJC 14:41	DAL 20:19	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1336 United	SFO 17:01	DFW 22:46	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2046 American Flight history →	SJC 11:58	DFW 17:30	20%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 557 American	SFO 17:37	DFW 23:23	22%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2834 American Flight history →	SJC 14:37	DFW 20:09	23%	9%	0.8%	73%
AA 3222 American	SFO 12:36	DFW 18:16	27%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2205 American	SFO 15:42	DFW 21:28	27%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	27%	7%	0.6%	61%
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	29%	9%	1.2%	45%
WN 4313 Southwest	SFO 15:36	DAL 21:09	30%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	31%	9%	1.1%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON