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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 105 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 442 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 442 SJC 06:46 → ONT 08:16 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4312 SFO 14:01 → BUR 15:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 442 Southwest SJC 06:46 ONT 08:16 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3483 Southwest OAK 06:21 ONT 07:56 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3152 Southwest OAK 06:31 BUR 07:58 2% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 2486 Southwest SFO 06:11 LAX 07:39 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 371 Southwest SJC 07:26 BUR 08:48 3% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 3175 Southwest OAK 06:31 LGB 08:01 3% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2127 United Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:39 3% 1% 0.6% 96%
WN 3204 Southwest OAK 07:16 SNA 08:53 3% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 3846 Southwest SJC 07:01 SNA 08:31 4% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 3153 Southwest OAK 09:16 BUR 10:43 4% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 472 Southwest SJC 09:38 BUR 11:00 5% 2% 1.5% no record
WN 758 Southwest SJC 08:01 LGB 09:28 5% 3% 0.5% no record
UA 1756 United Flight history → SFO 07:23 BUR 09:02 6% 3% 0.6% 97%
WN 3205 Southwest OAK 08:31 SNA 10:08 6% 2% 0.8% no record
DL 1598 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 LAX 08:30 6% 2% 0.8% 94%
WN 3608 Southwest OAK 07:16 LAX 08:44 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1160 Southwest SJC 06:41 LAX 08:05 7% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 3847 Southwest SJC 08:32 SNA 10:02 7% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 2102 Southwest OAK 10:52 LGB 12:22 7% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 07:08 SNA 08:49 8% 3% 1.4% 92%
WN 3826 Southwest SJC 11:12 ONT 12:41 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3553 Southwest OAK 10:41 ONT 12:12 9% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 1380 Delta SJC 11:42 LAX 13:03 9% 5% 1.2% no record
UA 2363 United Flight history → SFO 08:33 BUR 09:57 9% 3% 0.6% 84%
OO 5405 SkyWest SFO 07:30 SNA 09:24 9% 4% 1.2% no record
WN 3154 Southwest OAK 11:11 BUR 12:38 9% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 3206 Southwest OAK 10:26 SNA 11:58 10% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 3822 Southwest SJC 10:16 LGB 11:44 10% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 3797 Southwest SJC 12:23 BUR 13:45 10% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 3848 Southwest SJC 10:02 SNA 11:32 10% 2% 0.7% no record
DL 1362 Delta SJC 06:59 LAX 08:19 10% 3% 1.2% no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 14:59 LAX 16:24 10% 5% 0.6% 92%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → SFO 09:20 LAX 10:53 10% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 1097 American Flight history → SFO 06:55 LAX 08:27 10% 3% 0.6% 79%
WN 3849 Southwest SJC 12:02 SNA 13:32 10% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 3512 Southwest OAK 10:01 LAX 11:30 11% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 1260 United Flight history → SFO 06:55 LAX 08:25 11% 2% 0.6% 89%
WN 3207 Southwest OAK 12:31 SNA 14:03 11% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 2462 Southwest SJC 12:26 LAX 13:49 11% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 1170 Southwest OAK 14:31 LGB 16:01 11% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 3156 Southwest OAK 15:16 BUR 16:43 12% 5% 1.0% no record
WN 971 Southwest SJC 13:23 SNA 14:53 12% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 2062 Southwest SJC 10:21 LAX 11:45 12% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 3432 Southwest OAK 13:06 BUR 14:33 12% 4% 1.2% no record
WN 1941 Southwest SJC 14:58 BUR 16:20 12% 4% 1.1% no record
WN 3400 Southwest SJC 15:03 SNA 16:33 12% 3% 0.7% no record
OO 3849 SkyWest SJC 16:22 LAX 17:49 13% 6% 0.6% no record
OO 3847 SkyWest SJC 09:52 LAX 11:19 13% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 2001 United SFO 18:05 BUR 19:34 13% 8% 0.6% no record
WN 3157 Southwest OAK 17:04 BUR 18:31 14% 7% 1.1% no record
WN 3799 Southwest SJC 17:16 BUR 18:38 14% 6% 0.9% no record
WN 854 Southwest OAK 14:14 SNA 15:46 14% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2424 Southwest OAK 15:23 ONT 16:58 14% 7% 0.5% no record
WN 962 Southwest SJC 17:02 ONT 18:32 14% 8% 0.6% no record
WN 3454 Southwest SJC 16:33 SNA 18:03 14% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 3209 Southwest OAK 16:24 SNA 17:56 14% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 1450 Southwest SJC 16:11 LGB 17:39 15% 6% 0.5% no record
OO 5763 SkyWest SFO 08:35 SNA 10:16 16% 5% 1.3% no record
WN 1275 Southwest SFO 09:56 LAX 11:23 16% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 770 Southwest SJC 14:06 LAX 15:30 16% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 155 Southwest OAK 13:21 LAX 14:50 16% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 1457 United SFO 08:53 LAX 10:23 16% 4% 0.6% no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:28 SNA 11:11 17% 7% 1.2% 79%
WN 2477 Southwest SJC 16:01 LAX 17:25 18% 6% 0.6% no record
OO 6274 SkyWest SFO 09:27 LAX 10:58 19% 6% 0.8% no record
UA 643 United Flight history → SFO 10:23 SNA 12:06 19% 9% 0.6% 82%
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history → SFO 08:52 LAX 10:27 20% 6% 1.4% 70%
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history → SFO 08:30 LAX 10:07 20% 4% 0.8% 64%
UA 2441 United Flight history → SFO 12:22 SNA 14:02 20% 9% 0.6% 89%
UA 2610 United Flight history → SFO 13:55 LAX 15:35 21% 8% 0.6% 78%
UA 2282 United SFO 17:57 LAX 19:37 21% 9% 0.6% no record
UA 1506 United Flight history → SFO 12:15 LAX 13:55 22% 8% 0.6% 71%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:48 SNA 17:26 23% 7% 1.3% 85%
UA 1754 United Flight history → SFO 16:25 LAX 18:05 23% 10% 0.5% 73%
UA 2661 United Flight history → SFO 10:40 ONT 12:12 23% 7% 0.6% 78%
UA 2115 United Flight history → SFO 10:23 BUR 11:49 23% 7% 0.6% 81%
DL 2114 Delta SFO 16:58 LAX 18:23 24% 10% 0.8% no record
OO 6277 SkyWest SFO 12:04 LAX 13:48 25% 10% 0.8% no record
OO 5597 SkyWest SFO 16:48 SNA 18:29 25% 9% 1.0% no record
DL 2112 Delta SFO 12:08 LAX 13:33 25% 8% 0.8% no record
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 SNA 15:31 25% 9% 1.0% 80%
AA 1022 American SFO 13:27 LAX 15:00 25% 9% 0.6% no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:28 SNA 18:09 25% 9% 1.2% 71%
UA 626 United Flight history → SFO 13:50 BUR 15:17 25% 9% 0.6% 69%
F9 2858 Frontier Flight history → SFO 11:57 LAX 13:33 25% 10% 1.3% 69%
UA 2764 United Flight history → SFO 16:15 BUR 17:42 26% 10% 0.6% 56%
OO 5467 SkyWest SFO 16:14 ONT 17:51 26% 12% 0.8% no record
AS 3216 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:51 SNA 15:32 27% 9% 1.0% 74%
UA 1164 United Flight history → SFO 10:22 LAX 11:52 27% 7% 0.6% 75%
OO 5571 SkyWest SFO 13:45 ONT 15:23 27% 13% 0.8% no record
WN 3399 Southwest SFO 15:16 LAX 16:43 27% 10% 0.6% no record
WN 4319 Southwest SFO 11:31 LAX 12:58 28% 9% 0.6% no record
OO 3055 SkyWest SFO 12:03 SNA 13:44 28% 9% 1.2% no record
OO 6276 SkyWest SFO 16:12 LAX 17:43 28% 10% 0.7% no record
WN 4311 Southwest SFO 10:42 BUR 12:09 29% 8% 6.1% no record
DL 689 Delta SFO 14:28 LAX 15:51 29% 9% 0.8% no record
OO 249 SkyWest SFO 10:20 LAX 11:51 29% 9% 0.8% no record
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:09 LAX 11:49 30% 10% 0.8% 59%
WN 2881 Southwest SFO 17:41 LAX 19:08 30% 13% 0.6% no record
AS 1407 Alaska SFO 17:30 LAX 18:49 30% 10% 0.7% no record
F9 3582 Frontier Flight history → SFO 14:21 SNA 16:04 31% 13% 0.9% 65%
AS 520 Alaska SFO 15:35 LAX 16:56 32% 8% 0.7% no record
AS 200 Alaska SFO 10:03 LAX 11:24 33% 7% 0.8% no record
AS 1499 Alaska Flight history → SFO 12:20 LAX 13:39 35% 7% 0.7% 74%
WN 4312 Southwest SFO 14:01 BUR 15:28 35% 10% 4.3% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON