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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1947 at 00:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1947 SFO 00:06 → MCO 08:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1939 SFO 12:34 → MCO 21:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1947 United Flight history → SFO 00:06 MCO 08:27 9% 2% 0.6% 93%
UA 583 United Flight history → SFO 08:52 MCO 17:28 14% 5% 1.3% 90%
UA 1939 United SFO 12:34 MCO 21:03 22% 7% 0.7% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 12m Houston IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245 7h 46m 95% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 30m Houston IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662 8h 04m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON