Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2431 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2431 SFO 07:02 → FLL 15:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 773 SFO 11:33 → MIA 20:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2431 United	SFO 07:02	FLL 15:42	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 08:39	MIA 17:26	23%	7%	0.8%	72%
B6 578 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:30	FLL 19:15	26%	9%	0.7%	82%
UA 1458 United	SFO 12:17	MIA 21:07	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 773 American	SFO 11:33	MIA 20:20	30%	11%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505	1h 27m Houston	IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22UA 2261	8h 17m	97%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → FLL 15:46UA 1214	7h 46m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745	8h 28m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON