Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2861 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2861 SFO 06:45 → IAD 15:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2386 SFO 14:18 → DCA 22:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2861 United	SFO 06:45	IAD 15:04	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 599 United	SFO 08:11	IAD 16:30	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	16%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	19%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	21%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:51	IAD 21:12	22%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	22%	7%	0.6%	76%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	24%	10%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958	7h 38m	98%	90%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 35m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON