Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2933 BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1082 BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2933 Delta Flight history →	BDL 06:00	ATL 08:27	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2554 Delta Flight history →	BDL 07:00	ATL 09:26	7%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 2233 Delta Flight history →	BDL 08:05	ATL 10:29	7%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2735 Delta Flight history →	BDL 19:10	ATL 21:54	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2739 Delta Flight history →	BDL 17:21	ATL 20:14	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2951 Delta Flight history →	BDL 11:35	ATL 14:03	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1082 Delta Flight history →	BDL 13:50	ATL 16:20	11%	3%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON