Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 658 at 10:31, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 658 Southwest	BDL 10:31	BNA 11:56	7%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	5h 09m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330	3h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	8h 17m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	5h 30m	98%	90%
American Details →	BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182	2h 27m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295	6h 06m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:26 → BNA 14:38DL 790	7h 33m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682	4h 41m	96%	87%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 04m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366	4h 29m	96%	87%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414	7h 20m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	46m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → BNA 10:16UA 1674	5h 07m	74%	63%
United Details →	BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa	55m Dulles	IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213	4h 23m	71%	61%
American Details →	BDL 15:06 → DCA 16:44AA 5059 · flown by PSA	1h 02m Washington	DCA 17:46 → BNA 18:58AA 1163	4h 52m	73%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON