Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 438 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 438 BDL 05:51 → BWI 07:24 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4733 BDL 17:51 → BWI 19:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 438 Southwest	BDL 05:51	BWI 07:24	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1010 Southwest	BDL 08:57	BWI 10:29	5%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 351 Southwest	BDL 11:36	BWI 13:07	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1011 Southwest	BDL 16:26	BWI 17:58	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4733 Southwest	BDL 17:51	BWI 19:23	13%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON