Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3182 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3182 BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2741 BDL 15:29 → CLT 17:35 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3182 American Flight history →	BDL 06:01	CLT 08:08	8%	3%	1.0%	93%
AA 2133 American Flight history →	BDL 07:38	CLT 09:50	11%	4%	1.2%	91%
AA 2838 American Flight history →	BDL 11:20	CLT 13:34	16%	5%	0.9%	89%
AA 2741 American Flight history →	BDL 15:29	CLT 17:35	19%	7%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON