Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2594 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2594 BDL 05:24 → DCA 07:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5059 BDL 15:06 → DCA 16:44 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2594 American	BDL 05:24	DCA 07:04	7%	3%	1.8%	no record
AA 5307 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 09:26	DCA 11:03	14%	6%	2.0%	79%
OH 5079 PSA	BDL 12:14	DCA 13:51	18%	8%	1.7%	no record
OH 5058 PSA	BDL 19:31	DCA 21:05	27%	12%	2.6%	no record
AA 5059 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 15:06	DCA 16:44	28%	11%	1.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON