Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 364 BDL 08:09 → DEN 10:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 443 BDL 13:46 → DEN 16:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 364 United Flight history →	BDL 08:09	DEN 10:40	10%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 2239 United Flight history →	BDL 15:30	DEN 17:58	17%	5%	0.6%	78%
WN 443 Southwest	BDL 13:46	DEN 16:10	20%	3%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	6h 30m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	6h 02m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON