Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2729 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2729 BDL 06:46 → DFW 09:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1367 BDL 18:21 → DFW 21:16 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2729 American Flight history →	BDL 06:46	DFW 09:50	8%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1083 American	BDL 12:53	DFW 15:46	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1367 American Flight history →	BDL 18:21	DFW 21:16	24%	6%	0.7%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233	59m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	5h 39m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041	5h 49m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	BDL 17:05 → DTW 19:15DL 2814	49m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → DFW 21:48DL 1207	5h 43m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON