Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 09:43, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1361 United Flight history →	BDL 08:20	IAH 11:10	10%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 14m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 07m	97%	85%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 14m Dulles	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	5h 59m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 33m	99%	85%
American Details →	BDL 06:04 → DFW 08:59AA 2729	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:28 → IAH 11:48AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20DL 1082	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	8h 34m	98%	83%
United Details →	BDL 10:33 → IAD 12:09UA 1786	2h 55m Dulles	IAD 15:04 → IAH 17:09UA 2607	7h 36m	100%	82%
United Details →	BDL 08:09 → DEN 10:40UA 364	2h 50m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	9h 55m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa	55m Dulles	IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535	5h 45m	71%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON