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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 676 at 06:45, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 676 JetBlue Flight history → BDL 06:45 JFK 07:44 12% 4% 1.3% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 2h 49m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 6h 28m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 6h 00m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 1h 25m Charlotte CLT 09:33 → JFK 11:33AA 822 5h 32m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 8h 24m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20DL 1082 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 7h 39m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → BDL 05:00 → MIA 08:13AA 412 2h 09m Miami MIA 10:22 → JFK 13:32AA 2062 8h 32m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BDL 07:38 → CLT 09:50AA 2133 1h 38m Charlotte CLT 11:28 → JFK 13:28AA 374 5h 50m 94% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON