Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 444 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 444 BDL 06:21 → MCO 09:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 437 BDL 15:37 → MCO 18:22 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 444 Southwest	BDL 06:21	MCO 09:09	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
B6 737 JetBlue Flight history →	BDL 10:04	MCO 12:49	14%	5%	0.9%	86%
F9 2769 Frontier Flight history →	BDL 15:07	MCO 18:05	25%	9%	4.8%	74%
WN 445 Southwest	BDL 19:06	MCO 21:51	26%	6%	0.9%	no record
B6 437 JetBlue	BDL 15:37	MCO 18:22	28%	11%	4.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON