Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 412 at 05:55, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 412 American Flight history →	BDL 05:55	MIA 09:07	6%	2%	1.3%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 58m	98%	87%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	52m Dulles	IAD 08:18 → MIA 11:15UA 1073	5h 15m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	7h 02m	100%	85%
American Details →	BDL 07:09 → CLT 09:13AA 3182	1h 49m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 02m	98%	82%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 09:02 → MIA 13:10UA 1620	7h 01m	96%	82%
American Details →	BDL 06:54 → ORD 08:35AA 2163	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → MIA 14:10AA 2689	7h 16m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:30DL 1323	7h 25m	100%	73%
American Details →	BDL 08:56 → CLT 11:02AA 2133	2h 27m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	6h 40m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON