Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2672 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2672 BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2627 BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2672 United Flight history →	BDL 06:09	ORD 07:54	10%	2%	1.0%	90%
AA 2163 American Flight history →	BDL 07:15	ORD 09:05	10%	4%	2.4%	88%
UA 1456 United	BDL 09:41	ORD 11:19	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 378 United Flight history →	BDL 12:12	ORD 13:57	18%	5%	0.8%	91%
AA 1408 American Flight history →	BDL 13:08	ORD 14:50	25%	9%	1.8%	43%
MQ 3890 Envoy	BDL 18:28	ORD 20:08	27%	7%	1.8%	no record
UA 2627 United Flight history →	BDL 16:55	ORD 18:44	27%	9%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON