Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1475 at 14:05, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1475 JetBlue Flight history →	BDL 14:05	SJU 18:02	33%	14%	0.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:13 → SJU 13:52DL 1882	7h 52m	99%	89%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 08m Dulles	IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021	6h 34m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946	8h 34m	100%	85%
United Details →	BDL 08:20 → IAH 11:10UA 1361	3h 53m Houston	IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701	12h 18m	99%	84%
American Details →	BDL 07:09 → CLT 09:13AA 3182	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	7h 41m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20DL 1082	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	8h 39m	98%	82%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	55m Chicago	ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996	8h 35m	92%	81%
American Details →	BDL 05:55 → MIA 09:07AA 412	2h 20m Miami	MIA 11:27 → SJU 14:21AA 1613	8h 26m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON