tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1364 at 07:16, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1364 Southwest BDL 07:16 TPA 10:16 7% 2% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 34m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 32m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 29m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 39m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 2h 17m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → TPA 12:20AA 436 6h 19m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 08m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 2h 50m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 7h 20m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont 2h 55m Philadelphia PHL 10:35 → TPA 13:20AA 2015 7h 00m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859 2h 32m Detroit DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243 7h 02m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa 54m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 4h 49m 70% 58%
JetBlueDetails → BDL 08:00 → FLL 11:10B6 959 49m Fort Lauderdale FLL 11:59 → TPA 13:12B6 1005 5h 12m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON