tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Philadelphia, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BGR 05:45 → PHL 07:40AA 6096 · flown by Piedmont 1h 53m Philadelphia PHL 09:33 → ATL 11:49AA 841 6h 04m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BGR 05:20 → LGA 07:00DL 5137 · flown by Endeavor 2h 00m New York LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 6h 12m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → BGR 06:32 → ORD 08:20AA 3683 · flown by Envoy 1h 51m Chicago ORD 10:11 → ATL 13:26AA 2910 6h 54m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → BGR 12:03 → LGA 13:45DL 5254 · flown by Endeavor 2h 15m New York LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969 7h 04m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → BGR 11:16 → PHL 13:13AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont 2h 12m Philadelphia PHL 15:25 → ATL 17:42AA 3041 6h 26m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → BGR 17:01 → LGA 18:44DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor 1h 46m New York LGA 20:30 → ATL 23:43DL 975 6h 42m 82% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BGR 16:22 → JFK 18:09DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor 51m New York JFK 19:00 → ATL 22:11DL 962 5h 49m 73% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON