Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3509 at 09:26 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 3509 BGR 09:26 → ORD 11:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4702 BGR 16:47 → ORD 18:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3509 Republic	BGR 09:26	ORD 11:29	10%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 3683 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BGR 06:32	ORD 08:20	13%	5%	1.4%	80%
MQ 3548 Envoy	BGR 18:00	ORD 20:05	23%	10%	1.4%	no record
OO 4702 SkyWest	BGR 16:47	ORD 18:48	27%	14%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON