tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4777 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4777 Southwest BHM 08:21 BNA 09:35 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 451 Southwest BHM 16:51 BNA 18:04 18% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 3h 22m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 15m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 4h 33m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 5h 44m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 4h 44m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 38m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 4h 42m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Detroit DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316 6h 24m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BHM 16:35 → DFW 18:39AA 5316 · flown by PSA 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:31 → BNA 21:34AA 2979 4h 59m 73% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON