Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 454 at 18:46, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 454 Southwest	BHM 18:46	BWI 22:14	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	4h 28m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 46m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 23m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	5h 33m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928	7h 01m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	6h 16m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	5h 25m	91%	79%
United Details →	BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653	5h 39m	92%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON