Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5253 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 5253 BHM 08:16 → CLT 10:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 6350 BHM 17:14 → CLT 19:43 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5253 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 08:16	CLT 10:45	10%	3%	1.1%	93%
OH 5048 PSA	BHM 06:53	CLT 09:22	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
OH 5068 PSA	BHM 10:25	CLT 12:54	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
OO 6270 SkyWest	BHM 12:39	CLT 15:08	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5448 PSA	BHM 15:49	CLT 18:18	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
OO 6350 SkyWest	BHM 17:14	CLT 19:43	21%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON