Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5648 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day OH 5648 BHM 06:00 → DCA 09:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5147 BHM 17:15 → DCA 20:39 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5648 PSA	BHM 06:00	DCA 09:08	11%	5%	1.8%	no record
OH 5121 PSA	BHM 10:56	DCA 14:14	18%	7%	1.9%	no record
AA 5147 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 17:15	DCA 20:39	24%	11%	2.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON