Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4379 at 11:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4379 Southwest	BHM 11:01	HOU 12:54	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 26m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	5h 55m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 52m	100%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON