Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3423 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3423 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 06:05	MIA 09:07	15%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 3909 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 15:38	MIA 18:43	37%	9%	1.0%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 38m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 47m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 39m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	5h 01m	99%	77%
American Details →	BHM 05:18 → DFW 07:19AA 4186 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 37m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 13m	98%	74%
American Details →	BHM 08:16 → CLT 10:45AA 5253 · flown by PSA	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	6h 20m	96%	73%
American Details →	BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20AA 5218 · flown by PSA	2h 06m Philadelphia	PHL 11:26 → MIA 14:16AA 1989	7h 16m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON