Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5011 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day OO 5011 BHM 06:32 → ORD 08:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5727 BHM 14:04 → ORD 16:27 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5011 SkyWest	BHM 06:32	ORD 08:55	15%	7%	1.3%	no record
OO 4651 SkyWest	BHM 07:08	ORD 09:31	20%	8%	1.4%	no record
OO 6258 SkyWest	BHM 13:34	ORD 15:56	27%	11%	1.7%	no record
OO 5727 SkyWest	BHM 14:04	ORD 16:27	33%	13%	1.7%	no record
UA 4449 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 07:18	ORD 09:41	13%	4%	1.9%	87%
UA 4168 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 13:22	ORD 15:45	35%	9%	2.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON