Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5218 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 06:00	PHL 09:20	9%	4%	1.6%	91%
OH 5547 PSA	BHM 13:06	PHL 16:31	19%	5%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 38m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	6h 28m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	4h 56m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174	5h 33m	97%	83%
American Details →	BHM 05:18 → DFW 07:19AA 4186 · flown by Envoy	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → PHL 13:00AA 2255	6h 42m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 34m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 10m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 30m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON