Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1948 at 17:16, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1948 Southwest	BHM 17:16	TPA 19:54	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:19 → ATL 07:23DL 2162	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227	3h 48m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	4h 14m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	5h 05m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	5h 45m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	5h 16m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425	4h 56m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → TPA 21:30DL 3135	6h 20m	99%	79%
United Details →	BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	6h 54m	95%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BHM 11:10 → LGA 14:45DL 4936 · flown by Endeavor	54m New York	LGA 15:39 → TPA 18:54DL 2404	6h 44m	71%	48%
United Details →	BHM 13:22 → ORD 15:45UA 4168 · flown by GoJet	57m Chicago	ORD 16:42 → TPA 20:28UA 1393	6h 06m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON