Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3746 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 06:00	DFW 09:55	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 13:11	DFW 17:06	13%	2%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:55 → DFW 11:37DL 2798	5h 17m	98%	90%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DFW 12:39UA 1350	6h 39m	98%	87%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Denver	DEN 15:45 → DFW 18:51UA 2230	7h 11m	100%	81%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 38m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 34m	98%	77%
American Details →	BIL 12:25 → ORD 16:11AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 18:19 → DFW 20:56AA 1559	7h 31m	84%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON