Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2254 at 06:24, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2254 Delta Flight history →	BIL 06:24	MSP 09:27	3%	2%	0.5%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	5h 09m	98%	92%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 40m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BIL 11:50 → SLC 13:22DL 4038 · flown by SkyWest	3h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	8h 04m	100%	85%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 06m	100%	85%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 30m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	6h 25m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	6h 57m	96%	82%
American Details →	BIL 06:00 → DFW 09:55AA 3746 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:49 → MSP 14:20AA 1668	7h 20m	98%	78%
American Details →	BIL 13:11 → DFW 17:06AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806	7h 10m	96%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON