tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3498 at 12:25, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BIL 12:25 ORD 16:11 24% 4% 0.8% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Denver DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:43UA 2430 5h 43m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247 5h 40m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BIL 06:24 → MSP 09:27DL 2254 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 7h 41m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → BIL 06:55 → DEN 08:40UA 372 55m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 5h 20m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478 1h 55m Denver DEN 18:10 → ORD 21:43UA 2272 6h 18m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → BIL 06:00 → DFW 09:55AA 3746 · flown by Envoy 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:26 → ORD 14:00AA 1285 7h 00m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest 2h 28m Denver DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023 7h 06m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon 1h 22m Seattle SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265 7h 46m 96% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON