Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 2–4% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1360 BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 3828 BIL 18:34 → SLC 20:09 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1360 Delta Flight history →	BIL 05:20	SLC 06:44	2%	1%	0.4%	95%
DL 4038 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 11:50	SLC 13:22	3%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 3828 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 18:34	SLC 20:09	4%	3%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON