tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4730 at 13:11, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4730 Southwest BNA 13:11 ABQ 15:10 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 02m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 6h 43m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:15 → ABQ 12:46UA 476 6h 46m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:03 → ABQ 13:53AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 7h 49m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → ABQ 11:33AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 6h 32m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → ABQ 19:14DL 8790 7h 36m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:47 → IAH 10:57UA 4746 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 5h 40m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502 1h 18m Denver DEN 13:41 → ABQ 15:10UA 1594 5h 44m 93% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 1h 02m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 5h 47m 71% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON