Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2637 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2637 BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 215 BNA 16:11 → ATL 18:28 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2637 Delta Flight history →	BNA 05:10	ATL 07:21	2%	1%	0.6%	95%
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	BNA 09:48	ATL 12:00	4%	1%	0.6%	92%
DL 3001 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:18	ATL 08:30	5%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 2802 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:32	ATL 09:45	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 4782 Southwest	BNA 10:21	ATL 12:37	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:54	ATL 13:04	7%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	BNA 12:38	ATL 14:50	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 758 Delta	BNA 19:02	ATL 21:17	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2129 Delta	BNA 15:45	ATL 18:00	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:31	ATL 18:49	10%	2%	0.6%	69%
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:51	ATL 17:04	10%	2%	0.6%	78%
WN 215 Southwest	BNA 16:11	ATL 18:28	17%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON