Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 474 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 474 BNA 05:07 → AUS 07:25 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 165 BNA 18:46 → AUS 21:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 474 Southwest	BNA 05:07	AUS 07:25	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 477 Southwest	BNA 08:17	AUS 10:35	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1663 Southwest	BNA 09:22	AUS 11:42	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4146 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 07:05	AUS 09:31	7%	4%	0.5%	87%
WN 2093 Southwest	BNA 13:09	AUS 15:29	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4116 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 11:24	AUS 13:48	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 1693 Southwest	BNA 14:24	AUS 16:43	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 18:48	AUS 21:19	15%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 165 Southwest	BNA 18:46	AUS 21:05	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON