Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 146 at 15:11, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 146 Southwest	BNA 15:11	BDL 18:42	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082	5h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 44m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163	5h 08m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	49m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → BDL 10:30DL 2951	4h 20m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 14:26 → BDL 18:04DL 2285	7h 01m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739	5h 28m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682	1h 49m Detroit	DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814	5h 12m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735	6h 05m	99%	83%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195	5h 44m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON