Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 225 at 12:26, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 225 Southwest	BNA 12:26	BHM 13:32	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25DL 3100	3h 15m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	4h 52m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	5h 52m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	5h 22m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 28m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	5h 07m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BHM 17:55DL 1132	5h 17m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → BHM 20:39DL 3145	6h 36m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 18:30 → ORD 20:28UA 1127	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:34UA 4447 · flown by GoJet	5h 04m	73%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON