Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2509 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2509 BNA 07:30 → BOS 11:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2539 BNA 14:16 → BOS 17:56 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2509 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:30	BOS 11:11	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 486 Southwest	BNA 06:41	BOS 10:23	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4999 Southwest	BNA 10:16	BOS 13:57	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BNA 11:15	BOS 14:59	17%	5%	0.6%	79%
B6 1806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 09:07	BOS 12:49	18%	6%	0.9%	67%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:35	BOS 21:19	26%	7%	0.6%	64%
B6 406 JetBlue	BNA 16:15	BOS 19:56	31%	14%	0.9%	no record
WN 3294 Southwest	BNA 17:31	BOS 21:12	31%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 2539 Southwest	BNA 14:16	BOS 17:56	32%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON