Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 420 at 14:16, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 420 Southwest	BNA 14:16	BUF 17:16	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	5h 01m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	7h 21m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	5h 15m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	6h 47m	99%	83%
American Details →	BNA 08:39 → CLT 11:12AA 966	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 13:49 → BUF 15:43AA 2442	6h 04m	97%	80%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 42m Dulles	IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 55m	97%	78%
American Details →	BNA 15:42 → PHL 19:11AA 868	3h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont	7h 11m	98%	76%
American Details →	BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:50 → BUF 16:01AA 1724	7h 57m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON