Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2363 at 14:01, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2363 Southwest	BNA 14:01	BUR 16:25	16%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	2h 20m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 48m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 45m	100%	86%
American Details →	BNA 04:54 → DFW 07:01AA 2787	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:49AA 1208	8h 55m	99%	84%
United Details →	BNA 08:05 → SFO 10:44UA 626	3h 06m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	9h 12m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	BNA 09:03 → SEA 11:46AS 623	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 13:55 → BUR 16:23AS 529	9h 20m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON