tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2772 at 10:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2772 Southwest BNA 10:31 CLE 13:07 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4778 Southwest BNA 15:24 CLE 18:00 19% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 5h 22m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 15:38 → CLE 18:35DL 1118 7h 32m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775 6h 14m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 28m Dulles IAD 12:45 → CLE 14:06UA 1709 4h 36m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 6h 48m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 3h 14m Chicago ORD 12:55 → CLE 15:25UA 1878 6h 45m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350 6h 48m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:39 → CLT 11:12AA 966 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 14:08 → CLE 15:49AA 1244 6h 10m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → LGA 09:32DL 4638 · flown by Endeavor 53m New York LGA 10:25 → CLE 12:14DL 5045 · flown by Endeavor 5h 20m 72% 56%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339 46m Houston IAH 18:05 → CLE 21:59UA 744 5h 51m 69% 53%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:40 → LGA 16:16DL 5438 · flown by Endeavor 58m New York LGA 17:14 → CLE 19:19DL 5194 · flown by Endeavor 5h 39m 72% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON