Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2940 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2940 BNA 06:37 → CLT 09:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 159 BNA 17:11 → CLT 19:36 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2940 American	BNA 06:37	CLT 09:09	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 966 American Flight history →	BNA 08:39	CLT 11:12	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 3328 American Flight history →	BNA 11:51	CLT 14:21	11%	4%	0.7%	78%
WN 1223 Southwest	BNA 10:41	CLT 13:05	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1108 American	BNA 13:42	CLT 16:09	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1136 American	BNA 15:58	CLT 18:28	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 519 American Flight history →	BNA 18:23	CLT 20:53	19%	5%	0.7%	59%
WN 159 Southwest	BNA 17:11	CLT 19:36	22%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON