tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4666 at 10:26 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4666 Southwest BNA 10:26 CMH 12:51 5% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 513 Southwest BNA 15:56 CMH 18:22 18% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 4h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:14 → CMH 13:05DL 2550 6h 05m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 5h 06m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 29m Detroit DTW 10:15 → CMH 11:23DL 5810 · flown by Republic 4h 18m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892 5h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 3h 08m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 5h 59m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 21m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 7h 25m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:33 → CMH 22:15DL 1501 6h 24m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON