Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 518 at 11:33, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 518 Southwest	BNA 11:33	CVG 13:49	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 15m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	5h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	5h 53m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	3h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	7h 34m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	5h 47m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248	5h 10m	97%	83%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → CVG 14:15AA 3305	7h 14m	98%	82%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 18m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → CVG 14:13UA 6240 · flown by Mesa	4h 43m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BNA 10:00 → JFK 13:30DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 14:20 → CVG 16:51DL 5012 · flown by Endeavor	5h 51m	69%	50%
Delta Details →	BNA 13:53 → JFK 17:39DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 18:29 → CVG 21:05DL 5023 · flown by Endeavor	6h 12m	64%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON